Repurposing climate reconstructions for drought prediction in Southeast Asia

Climate information may help smallholder farmers in Southeast Asia take informed risks and reduce their climate vulnerability. Model-based seasonal forecasts are limited in the skill they offer with longer lead times, and in their accessibility to farmers in remote regions. Climate reconstructions derived from tree rings can complement model-based forecasts, providing probabilistic estimates of future climate at an annual resolution. This study demonstrates the skill of PDSI reconstructions derived from the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA) to forecast a climate signal several years into the future, and illustrates the advantage of such information vis-à-vis the simple strategy of assuming climate to persist from year to year. This work shows the potential for such climate reconstructions to improve inter-annual decisions on Southeast Asian farms, and highlights the social research necessary to transmute this potential into a valuable climate decision aid.

Cattle, Clean Water, and Climate Change: Policy Choices for the Brazilian Agricultural Frontier

In the Amazonian agricultural frontier, pasture for cattle ranching is an important and potentially hazardous form of land use because of sediment erosion as pastures degrade. This relationship between ranching, sediment load, and water quality is likely to further exacerbate environmental impacts, particularly in the context of climate change. We examine the role that river basin councils (RBCs) - a water governance option of Brazil’s 1997 National Water Act - might play in managing this nonpoint-source pollution in the Amazonian state of Rondônia. We implement a simple coupled rancher-water system model to compare two potential governance options: a bulk water cleanup charge (BWC) implemented by RBCs and a land-use fine (LUF) for failing to maintain riparian buffers. We find no significant advantage of BWC over LUF in reducing sediment loading while keeping ranching profitable, under a changing climate. We also fail to find in Rondônia the important stake in water issues that has driven water reform elsewhere in Brazil. Moreover, the comparative success of reforestation programs suggests these programs may, in fact, have the potential to manage nonpoint-source agricultural pollution in the region.

Highly Optimized Tolerant (HOT) Farms in Rondônia: Productivity and Farm Size, and Implications for Environmental Licensing

This paper operationalizes the concept of highly optimized tolerance (HOT) for the case of smallholder agriculture in Rondônia, Brazil. It seeks to understand how characteristics of family farms shift as a function of property size, arguing that as production intensifies, properties move closer to a HOT state. In this state, resources are committed to maintaining robustness against expected disturbances, such as shifts in yields or crop prices, making property more vulnerable to other unexpected disturbances, such as shifts in input prices or availability. The shifts in production, labor, and costs that occur across scale in the Ji-Paraná River Basin in Rondônia were measured using a survey instrument on a sample of farmers in the basin. Study results show decreasing production intensity with increasing property size in the sample, coupled with decreasing contracted and family labor use intensity, as well as decreased income diversification and off-farm labor. Farms smaller than 60 ha in the sample differed markedly in production and cost structure from those that were larger. For these smaller properties, meeting the requirements of Rondônia’s new environmental licensing program (LAPRO) may lead to an increase in the sale of land parcels to cover debts and a speeding up of land consolidation in the region.

Environmental Licensing and Land Aggregation: An Agent-Based Approach to Understanding Ranching and Land Use in Rural Rondônia

Agricultural development and climate change will be two of the major stressors on the Amazon natural-human system in the decades to come. Environmental licensing for rural properties is being implemented in several states in the Brazilian Amazon with the goal of restoring forests in agricultural landscapes and mediating the impacts of these stressors. This study presents an agent-based model of ranching and land exchange, informs it with empirical results from social research in the Ji-Paraná River Basin, Rondônia, Brazil, and investigates the social, economic, and environmental outcomes that can be expected as a result of environmental licensing in the context of climate change. Model results informed by these data suggest that although an environmental licensing scheme with monitoring and enforcement may increase the level of forested land in ranching landscapes, it may do so at the expense of the small producer. To the extent that effective monitoring and enforcement exist, a focus on larger holdings will help to mediate this negative social impact. These results suggest that a middle ground can be found in cases where current environmental goals conflict with legacies of past colonization and resource-use regimes.

Technical knowledge and water resources management: A comparative study of river basin councils, Brazil

Better understanding of the factors that shape the use of technical knowledge in water management is important both to increase its relevance to decision-making and sustainable governance and to inform knowledge producers where needs lie. This is particularly critical in the context of the many stressors threatening water resources around the world. Recent scholarship focusing on innovative water management institutions emphasizes knowledge use as critical to water systems’ adaptive capacity to respond to these stressors. For the past 15 years, water resources management in Brazil has undergone an encompassing reform that has created a set of participatory councils at the river basin level. Using data from a survey of 626 members of these councils across 18 river basins, this article examines the use of technical knowledge (e.g., climate and weather forecasts, reservoir streamflow models, environmental impact assessments, among others) within these councils. It finds that use of knowledge positively aligns with access, a more diverse and broader discussion agenda, and a higher sense of effectiveness. Yet, use of technical knowledge is also associated with skewed levels of power within the councils.

How does Diversity Matter? The Case of Brazilian River Basin Councils

Diversity as a concept has often been perceived as a positive system attribute to pursue and protect. However, in some social settings, the way different kinds of diversity shape outcomes can vary significantly. Diversity of ideas and individuals sometimes can lead to disagreement and conflict, which in turn can lead to both positive and negative outcomes. In this study, we examine identity diversity, i.e., age, income, education, worldviews, etc., within the context of Brazilian water governance. We find that within the basins studied in this project, first, the more diversity in organizations and the sectors represented on the council, the more council members participate in council activities, perceive decision making to be democratic, and perceive technical information to facilitate decision making. Second, diversity in what members perceive to be the most pressing problems facing the basin and also diversity in worldviews often correlate negatively with some measures of participation and the perceived importance of technical knowledge. Third, diversity in the level of experience with water issues negatively correlates with some measures of participation and perceived democratic decision making. Fourth, diversity in the perception of the most important problem facing the basin leads to poorer outcomes in the council. Our work provides an argument for supporting broad sectoral representation of interests within deliberative decision making bodies; however, it also illustrates that it is critical for these bodies to explore ways to resolve basic disagreements about the most important problems that need to be addressed and where their collective efforts should be focused.